Match details. League Cup, Quarter-finals. Kick-off is Tue 27 Oct, 21:15 Lagos time. It is played at Estádio José Alvalade, Lisboa.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Sporting have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W W D. Maritimo Madeira have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L D L.
The numbers. Sporting score 2.2 and concede 1.5 a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet. Sporting average 14.6 shots (4.6 on target), 5.5 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 57% of the ball. Maritimo Madeira score 1.2 and concede 2.2 a game in their last six away, with no clean sheets. Maritimo Madeira average 9.1 shots (2.9 on target), 3.6 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 47% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Sporting have won six, drawn two and lost two. Three of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Sporting won two, one was drawn and Maritimo Madeira won one. The last time they met, on 13 May 2023, it finished Sporting 2-1 Maritimo Madeira: Sporting had 20 shots to 2, 77% of the ball, 13 yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their xG points to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 69%; seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. A knockout game (Quarter-finals) with penalties if level, and Sporting are not clearly stronger. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 69%.
The read. Sporting or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Sporting the likelier winners; Sporting are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Sporting; the meetings favour Sporting. Their xG points to a tight game. Seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Sporting (Draw No Bet) at 1.10, 77% on the records (Sporting won 4 of 5 (draws left out); Maritimo Madeira lost 5 of 7 (draws left out)). Full cover: Maritimo Madeira Over 0.5 Goals at 1.69. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Sporting or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Sporting 1-1 Maritimo Madeira (12% chance).
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Sporting 1UPTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.15
SPO 4 of 5 (80%) · MAR 5 of 6 (83%)82.2%
Sporting scored first 3 of last 5, led in 4 · led in 5 of 6 at home · Maritimo Madeira trailed in 5 of 6 away · the call is Sporting or the draw: a knockout game (Quarter-finals) with penalties if level, and Sporting are not clearly stronger (rule 8)
Sporting or Draw & Over 1.5IN CODES
1.24
SPO 6 of 7 (86%) · MAR 4 of 5 (80%)81.2%
Sporting: the bet landed in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Maritimo Madeira: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 82% · H2H 4 of 6 · Sporting: only games against sides at Maritimo Madeira's level · Maritimo Madeira: only games against sides at Sporting's level
Sporting (Draw No Bet)MAININ CODES
1.13
SPO 4 of 5 (80%) · MAR 5 of 7 (71%)79.7%
Sporting won 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · Maritimo Madeira lost 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 76% · H2H 4 of 5 · Sporting: only games against sides at Maritimo Madeira's level · Maritimo Madeira: only games against sides at Sporting's level · won 6, refunded 2, lost 4
Sporting to Win Either Half: YesTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.15
SPO 5 of 7 (71%) · MAR 4 of 5 (80%)73.2%
Sporting: the bet landed in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Maritimo Madeira: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 75% · H2H 4 of 6 · on half-time scores · Sporting: only games against sides at Maritimo Madeira's level · Maritimo Madeira: only games against sides at Sporting's level · the call is Sporting or the draw: a knockout game (Quarter-finals) with penalties if level, and Sporting a
1st Half Result or Match Result: SportingTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.16
SPO 5 of 7 (71%) · MAR 4 of 5 (80%)73.2%
Sporting: the bet landed in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Maritimo Madeira: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 75% · H2H 4 of 6 · on half-time scores · Sporting: only games against sides at Maritimo Madeira's level · Maritimo Madeira: only games against sides at Sporting's level · the call is Sporting or the draw: a knockout game (Quarter-finals) with penalties if level, and Sporting a
Sporting to WinTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.29
SPO 4 of 7 (57%) · MAR 3 of 5 (60%)65%
Sporting won 4 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Maritimo Madeira lost 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 56% · H2H 4 of 6 · Sporting: only games against sides at Maritimo Madeira's level · Maritimo Madeira: only games against sides at Sporting's level · the call is Sporting or the draw: a knockout game (Quarter-finals) with penalties if level, and Sporting are not clearly stronger (rule 8)
Sporting or draw and over 2.5 goalsSETTLEDPAGE ONLY
1.51
SPO 4 of 7 (57%) · MAR 3 of 5 (60%)62.6%
Sporting: the bet landed in 4 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Maritimo Madeira: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 62% · H2H 3 of 6 · Sporting: only games against sides at Maritimo Madeira's level · Maritimo Madeira: only games against sides at Sporting's level · rule 2: the meetings back Sporting: in the last 10 meetings, Sporting won 6, Maritimo Madeira won 2 and 2 were drawn; in the las
1X2 - 2UP: SportingTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.28
SPO 3 of 5 (60%) · MAR 4 of 6 (67%)58.9%
Sporting scored first 3 of last 5, led by 2 or won in 3 · led by 2 or won in 4 of 6 at home · Maritimo Madeira trailed by 2 or lost in 3 of 6 away · the call is Sporting or the draw: a knockout game (Quarter-finals) with penalties if level, and Sporting are not clearly stronger (rule 8)
Sporting or draw and both teams scoreSETTLEDPAGE ONLY
1.92
SPO 4 of 7 (57%) · MAR 3 of 5 (60%)55.2%
Sporting: the bet landed in 4 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Maritimo Madeira: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 56% · H2H 3 of 6 · Sporting: only games against sides at Maritimo Madeira's level · Maritimo Madeira: only games against sides at Sporting's level · rule 2: the meetings back Sporting: in the last 10 meetings, Sporting won 6, Maritimo Madeira won 2 and 2 were drawn; in the las
BOTH TEAMS SCORE
Both Teams to Score - YesLEANPAGE ONLY
1.82
SPO 5 of 7 (71%) · MAR 4 of 5 (80%)65.4%
Sporting: both scored in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Maritimo Madeira: both scored in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 69% · H2H 3 of 6 · Sporting: only games against sides at Maritimo Madeira's level · Maritimo Madeira: only games against sides at Sporting's level
MARITIMO MADEIRA GOALS
Maritimo Madeira Under 1.5 goalsIN CODES
1.25
SPO 4 of 5 (80%) · MAR 5 of 7 (71%)77.6%
Maritimo Madeira scored under 1.5 in 4 of 5 away · Sporting conceded under 1.5 in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · H2H 6 of 6 · Maritimo Madeira: only games against sides at Sporting's level · Sporting: only games against sides at Maritimo Madeira's level
Maritimo Madeira Over 0.5 goalsFULL COVERIN CODES
1.64
SPO 4 of 5 (80%) · MAR 5 of 7 (71%)70.3%
Maritimo Madeira scored in 4 of 5 away · Sporting conceded in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · H2H 4 of 6 · Maritimo Madeira: only games against sides at Sporting's level · Sporting: only games against sides at Maritimo Madeira's level
HALVES
2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY
1.15
SPO 6 of 7 (86%) · MAR 5 of 5 (100%)90.5%
Sporting: the bet landed in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Maritimo Madeira: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 93% · H2H 5 of 6 · on half-time scores · Sporting: only games against sides at Maritimo Madeira's level · Maritimo Madeira: only games against sides at Sporting's level
Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY
1.22
SPO 6 of 7 (86%) · MAR 5 of 5 (100%)84.9%
Sporting: the bet landed in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Maritimo Madeira: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 87% · H2H 4 of 6 · on half-time scores · Sporting: only games against sides at Maritimo Madeira's level · Maritimo Madeira: only games against sides at Sporting's level
CARDS
Over 2.5 CardsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
SPO 4 of 5 (80%) · MAR 6 of 7 (86%)82.9%
Sporting's games: over 2.5 cards in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Maritimo Madeira's games: over 2.5 cards in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · Sporting: only games against sides at Maritimo Madeira's level · Maritimo Madeira: only games against sides at Sporting's level
Left off the list: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Sporting or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Sporting Win & Over 1.5 (the numbers (40%) and the records (56%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Sporting Over 1.5 goals (the numbers (49%) and the records (63%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Sporting win and over 2.5 goals (the numbers (31%) and the records (50%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Under 4.5 Goals (Sporting are a clear winner - no Unders); Sporting or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))
SCORELINES
Predicted score
Predicted score 1–112.4%
Sporting goals →
Maritimo Madeira goals ↓
0-08%
1-011%
2-09%
3-05%
4-02%
5-00.7%
0-16%
1-112%
2-110%
3-15%
4-12%
5-10.7%
0-24%
1-26%
2-25%
3-23%
4-21%
5-20.4%
0-31%
1-32%
2-32%
3-30.9%
4-30.4%
5-30.1%
0-40.3%
1-40.5%
2-40.4%
3-40.2%
4-40.1%
5-40.0%
0-50.1%
1-50.1%
2-50.1%
3-50.0%
4-50.0%
5-50.0%
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).
FORM · LAST 10
SPORTINGWWWWDDWWLL2.00 PPG
MARITIMO MADEIRAWWDLLLDLWL1.10 PPG
THE NUMBERS
SPORTING HOMExMARITIMO MADEIRA AWAY
2.30SCORED A GAME1.101.10CONCEDED A GAME2.0030%CLEAN SHEETS10%0%FAILED TO SCORE22%5.50CORNERS A GAME3.572.38CARDS A GAME1.862.02xG0.631.11xG AGAINST1.70
THE BANK
THE BANKER MENU
SPORTING OR DRAW (1UP)
–
137 OF 146
NO PRICE YET
The tips call a clear winner and every tip has the favourite winning by 2+.
OVER 1.5 CARDS
–
718 OF 767
NO PRICE YET
The Bank expects 4.5+ cards.
Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.
THE QUALITY READ
1.88POINTS A GAME0.89+1.00GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-1.11+5.5SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-6.01.6LAST 5: POINTS A GAME0.28LEAGUE GAMES9
Sporting: the quality side - more points a game, a better goal difference, more shots than it allows, better form (last 5).
SPORTING 2:0 HANDICAP
–
389 OF 413
NO PRICE YET
Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.
THE BANK'S READ
OVER 1.5 GOALS
95%
VERY GOOD · 80/83
OVER 2.5 GOALS
81%
VERY GOOD · 65/78
UNDER 4.5 GOALS
88%
OKAY · 85/90
SPORTING OR DRAW
77%
NO · 80/85
MARITIMO MADEIRA OR DRAW
43%
NO · 80/85
Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (8 and 9 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.
SPORTINGxMARITIMO MADEIRA
5GAMES51.80SCORED A GAME0.601.20CONCEDED A GAME2.803.0GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.4100%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS80%80%BOTH SCORE60%5.2CARDS IN THEIR GAMES4.28.8CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES8.4
Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.
HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 10
SPORTING 6 · 60%DRAW 2MARITIMO MADEIRA 2 · 20%
4 of 10BOTH TEAMS SCORED
7 of 10OVER 1.5 GOALS
3 of 10OVER 2.5 GOALS
2 of 10OVER 3.5 GOALS
2019-08-11Sporting 1 – 1 Maritimo Madeira
2020-01-27Sporting 1 – 0 Maritimo Madeira
2021-01-11Sporting 0 – 2 Maritimo Madeira
2021-02-05Sporting 2 – 0 Maritimo Madeira
2021-05-19Sporting 5 – 1 Maritimo Madeira
2021-09-24Sporting 1 – 0 Maritimo Madeira
2022-02-26Sporting 1 – 1 Maritimo Madeira
2022-12-13Sporting 5 – 0 Maritimo Madeira
TRENDS
Sporting have scored in 100% of their games.
Maritimo Madeira have scored in 80% of their games.
Sporting kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.
Maritimo Madeira kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetshead to headcornerscards