AB Gladsaxe vs Broendby IF
Match details. It is the DBU Pokalen Round of 16. Kick-off is Tue 27 Oct, 19:30 Lagos time. It is played at Gladsaxe Stadion, Søborg.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. AB Gladsaxe have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, taking 1.9 points a game. Their last five reads W W W W W. Broendby IF have won five, drawn none and lost five of their last ten, getting 1.5 points a game. Their last five reads W L W L W, and in this competition Broendby IF have gone W.
The numbers. AB Gladsaxe score 1.7 and concede 0.7 a game in their last six at home, with three clean sheets. They average 9.4 shots (4.4 on target), 5.0 corners and 2.2 cards a game. Broendby IF score 1.6 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. Broendby IF average 14.3 shots (4.4 on target), 5.6 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 54% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree here. The odds board makes it 19% against the records' 61%.
The read. No firm call: AB Gladsaxe are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make AB Gladsaxe the likelier winners, and they are the stronger side on form and the table. Both teams' records favour AB Gladsaxe. Their goals for and against point to an open game, putting over 2.5 goals at 68%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Broendby IF or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs AB Gladsaxe); Broendby IF Over 0.5 Goals (AB Gladsaxe's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: AB Gladsaxe 2-1 Broendby IF (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).