Kyoto Sanga FC vs Newcastle United Jets
Match details. Kyoto Sanga FC host Newcastle United Jets in the AFC Champions League Elite, League Phase - 3. Kick-off is set for Tue 27 Oct, 11:00 Lagos time. The match is played at Sanga Stadium by Kyocera, Kyoto, with Kim Jong-hyeok as the referee.
What's at stake. Kyoto Sanga FC are 9th on three points after two games, level on points with Kashiwa Reysol and Jeonbuk Motors. A win would take them above Kashiwa Reysol. Newcastle United Jets sit 16th on zero points after two games, level on points with Port FC. A win would take them above Port FC.
Form. Kyoto Sanga FC have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, averaging 1.1 points a game. Their last five read D D L W L, and in this competition they have gone W L. Newcastle United Jets have won one, drawn five and lost four of their last ten, with 0.8 points a game. Their last five read D D L L L, and in this competition they have gone L L.
The numbers. Kyoto Sanga FC score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. They average 9.7 shots (2.9 on target), 3.6 corners and 1.0 cards a game, with 44% of the ball. Newcastle United Jets score 1.7 and concede three a game in their last six away, with no clean sheets. They average 12.0 shots (4.0 on target), 5.1 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 52% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree here. The odds board makes it 71% against the records' 42%. On goals, their xG points to a tight game, but their records put over 2.5 goals at 61%.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals. Their xG points to a tight game.
The read. No firm call: Kyoto Sanga FC are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Kyoto Sanga FC the likelier winners, as Kyoto Sanga FC are the stronger side on form and the table. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 61%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Over 1.5 Cards (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (Kyoto Sanga FC are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Kyoto Sanga FC 2-1 Newcastle United Jets (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).