Sarpsborg 08 vs Vaalerenga IF
Match details. NM Cup, Round of 32. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 Lagos time. It is played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Sarpsborg 08 have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W L. In this competition Sarpsborg 08 have gone W W. Vaalerenga IF have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L D W. In this competition Vaalerenga IF have gone W W.
The numbers. Sarpsborg 08 score 1.2 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Sarpsborg 08 average 16.9 shots (5.7 on target), 8.1 corners and 1.3 cards a game, with 51% of the ball. Vaalerenga IF score 2.9 and concede two a game in their last seven away, with one clean sheet. Vaalerenga IF average 18.0 shots (5.4 on target), 6.7 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 49% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last seven meetings Sarpsborg 08 have won two, drawn three and lost two. Five of the seven went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, two were drawn and Vaalerenga IF won two. The last time they met, on 6 Sep 2026, it finished Sarpsborg 08 2-2 Vaalerenga IF: Sarpsborg 08 had 19 shots to 12, 40% of the ball, two yellow cards.
The case against. A knockout game (Round of 32) with penalties if level, and Vaalerenga IF are not clearly stronger. Sarpsborg 08's record still gives them 31% to win.
The read. Vaalerenga IF or the draw. An open game. Their goals for and against make Vaalerenga IF the likelier winners; Vaalerenga IF are the stronger side on form and the table. Their xG points to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 74%. Five of the last seven meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Sarpsborg 08 or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs Vaalerenga IF); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Sarpsborg 08 1-2 Vaalerenga IF (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).