Meninas de Jaragua vs Criciuma SC
Match details. Catarinense, Women. Kick-off is Mon 26 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.
Form. Meninas de Jaragua have won two, drawn one and lost none of their last three league games, 2.3 points a game. Their last three in the league, newest first: W D W. Criciuma SC have won three, drawn none and lost none of their last three league games, 3.0 points a game. Their last three in the league, newest first: W W W.
The numbers. Meninas de Jaragua score 1.7 and concede 0.3 a game over their last three, with two clean sheets. Meninas de Jaragua average 9.5 corners and 1.5 cards a game. Criciuma SC score 6.3 and concede 0.3 a game over their last three, with two clean sheets. Criciuma SC average 12.8 shots (3.7 on target), 3.8 corners and 2.2 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 6% against the records' 51%.
The read. No firm call: Meninas de Jaragua are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Meninas de Jaragua the likelier winners; Meninas de Jaragua are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Meninas de Jaragua. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 68%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Meninas de Jaragua 2-1 Criciuma SC (9% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Meninas de Jaragua the favourite), an open game.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Too few cup games on either side to read.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).