Al Ahli Saudi FC vs Al Gharafa SC
Match details. AFC Champions League Elite, League Phase - 3. Kick-off is Mon 26 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time. It is played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Jeddah.
What's at stake. Al Ahli Saudi FC are 5th on 4 points after 2 games, 2 points behind Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, level on points with Al-Qadisiyah FC. A win would take them above Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Al Gharafa SC are 13th on 0 points after 2 games, 1 point behind Tractor Sazi, level on points with Al-Wasl FC. A win would take them above Tractor Sazi.
Form. Al Ahli Saudi FC have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W L. In this competition Al Ahli Saudi FC have gone W D. Al Gharafa SC have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L L W. In this competition Al Gharafa SC have gone L L.
The numbers. Al Ahli Saudi FC score 2.6 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets. Al Ahli Saudi FC average 13.9 shots (7.0 on target), 3.7 corners and 1.0 cards a game, with 49% of the ball. Al Gharafa SC score 1.3 and concede two a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Al Gharafa SC average 15.3 shots (4.9 on target), 5.6 corners and 2.3 cards a game, with 45% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last four meetings Al Ahli Saudi FC have won two, drawn two and lost none. Two of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. The last time they met, on 20 Oct 2025, it finished Al Ahli Saudi FC 4-0 Al Gharafa SC: Al Ahli Saudi FC had 12 shots to 5, 48% of the ball, three yellow cards.
The read. Al Ahli Saudi FC to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Al Ahli Saudi FC the likelier winners; Al Ahli Saudi FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Al Ahli Saudi FC; the meetings favour Al Ahli Saudi FC. Their xG points to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 80%.
The bets. Best bet: Al Ahli Saudi FC Over 1.5 Goals at 1.22, 71% on the records (Al Ahli Saudi FC scored over 1.5 in 7 of 10; Al Gharafa SC conceded over 1.5 in 8 of 10). The safer one: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.09 (91%). Backup: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.09. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Al Ahli Saudi FC 2-1 Al Gharafa SC (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).