Danubio FC vs Club Nacional de Football
Match details. Primera Division, Clausura - 13. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 20:30 Lagos time. It is played at Gardens of the Hippodrome, Montevideo. The referee is Hernan Heras.
What's at stake. Danubio FC are 13th on 10 points after 12 games, 2 points behind Albion FC, 1 point clear of Cerro Largo. A win would take them above Albion FC. Club Nacional de Football are 3rd on 23 points after 12 games, 2 points behind Atletico Torque, 1 point clear of Penarol. A win would take them above Atletico Torque.
Form. Danubio FC have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W L. In this competition Danubio FC have gone L W L W L D. Club Nacional de Football have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W W. In this competition Club Nacional de Football have gone L W W W W W.
The numbers. Danubio FC score 0.8 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Danubio FC average 9.2 shots (2.8 on target), 3.8 corners and 3.0 cards a game, with 48% of the ball. Club Nacional de Football score 1.6 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets. Club Nacional de Football average 9.8 shots (3.5 on target), 6.2 corners and 3.5 cards a game, with 50% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Danubio FC have won two, drawn four and lost four. Four of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, Danubio FC won one, two were drawn and Club Nacional de Football won one. The last time they met, on 11 Jul 2026, it finished Danubio FC 0-0 Club Nacional de Football.
The case against. Danubio FC's record still gives them 20% to win.
The read. Club Nacional de Football to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Club Nacional de Football the likelier winners; Club Nacional de Football are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Club Nacional de Football. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 33%. Six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Draw or Club Nacional de Football at 1.21, 75% on the records (Club Nacional de Football unbeaten in 9 of 10; Danubio FC failed to win 3 of 5 at home). Backup: Club Nacional de Football or Under 2.5 Goals at 1.13. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Danubio FC 0-1 Club Nacional de Football (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).