CD Once Caldas vs Alianza FC Valledupar
Match details. Liga DIMAYOR, Clausura - 5. Kick-off is Thu 29 Oct, 00:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Palogrande, Manizales.
What's at stake. CD Once Caldas are 8th on 21 points after 16 games, 2 points behind Independiente Medellin, level on points with Cucuta. A win would take them above Independiente Medellin. Alianza FC Valledupar are 12th on 18 points after 15 games, 1 point behind Águilas Doradas, 1 point clear of Internacional de Bogota. A win would take them above Águilas Doradas.
Form. CD Once Caldas have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D W W D. Alianza FC Valledupar have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D L W.
The numbers. CD Once Caldas score one and concede one a game in their last six at home, with three clean sheets. CD Once Caldas average 16.4 shots (6.5 on target), 5.2 corners and 2.9 cards a game, with 52% of the ball. Alianza FC Valledupar score one and concede 1.5 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Alianza FC Valledupar average 12.0 shots (4.0 on target), 4.3 corners and 4.1 cards a game, with 42% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings CD Once Caldas have won two, drawn three and lost five. Three of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, CD Once Caldas won one, two were drawn and Alianza FC Valledupar won one. The last time they met, on 10 Sep 2026, it finished CD Once Caldas 1-0 Alianza FC Valledupar.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 69% against the records' 37%.
The read. No firm call: CD Once Caldas are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make CD Once Caldas the likelier winners; CD Once Caldas are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%. Seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.33, 75% on the records (CD Once Caldas: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Alianza FC Valledupar: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: CD Once Caldas Over 0.5 Goals at 1.12. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: CD Once Caldas 1-1 Alianza FC Valledupar (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).