Energie Cottbus vs Bochum
Match details. 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is Fri 30 Oct, 18:30 Lagos time. It is played at Stadion der Freundschaft, Cottbus.
What's at stake. Energie Cottbus are 11th on 10 points after 9 games, level on points with Eintracht Braunschweig, 1 point clear of SpVgg Greuther Fürth. A win would take them above Eintracht Braunschweig. Bochum are 14th on 8 points after 9 games, level on points with Holstein Kiel, level on points with Dynamo Dresden. A win would take them above Holstein Kiel.
Form. Energie Cottbus have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L D W. Bochum have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L L L.
The numbers. Energie Cottbus score 1.6 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Energie Cottbus average 13.0 shots (5.6 on target), 6.6 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 52% of the ball. Bochum score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Bochum average 11.6 shots (4.5 on target), 5.7 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 53% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last six meetings Energie Cottbus have won one, drawn two and lost three. Two of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, one was drawn and Bochum won three. The last time they met, on 13 Apr 2014, it finished Energie Cottbus 1-2 Bochum.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Energie Cottbus the likelier winners, but the meetings favour Bochum.
The case against. Bochum's record still gives them 34% to win. The meetings do not back them.
The read. Energie Cottbus or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Energie Cottbus the likelier winners; the meetings favour Bochum. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 43%. Four of the last six meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Energie Cottbus or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Energie Cottbus or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Energie Cottbus 1-1 Bochum (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).