Match details. Brasileiro Serie A, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is Wed 4 Nov, 23:30 Lagos time. It is played at Arena da Baixada, Curitiba, Paraná. The referee is R. Abatti.
What's at stake. CA Paranaense PR are 5th on 54 points after 33 games, level on points with Fluminense, 1 point clear of Bahia. A win would take them above Fluminense. CR Vasco da Gama RJ are 14th on 38 points after 32 games, 1 point behind Botafogo, level on points with Vitoria. A win would take them above Botafogo.
Team news. CA Paranaense PR are without Claudinho (knee injury), C. Teran (inactive), Claudinho (knee injury), C. Teran (inactive). CR Vasco da Gama RJ are without Cauan Barros (leg injury), C. Cuesta (hip injury), A. Gomez (injury), Mateus Carvalho (knee injury), Cauan Barros (leg injury), C. Cuesta (hip injury).
Form. CA Paranaense PR have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L W D. In this competition CA Paranaense PR have gone L D L W D W. CR Vasco da Gama RJ have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L D W. In this competition CR Vasco da Gama RJ have gone L W L D W W.
The numbers. CA Paranaense PR score 1.9 and concede two a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. CA Paranaense PR average 16.8 shots (5.8 on target), 7.1 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 52% of the ball. CR Vasco da Gama RJ score one and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. CR Vasco da Gama RJ average 18.8 shots (5.6 on target), 7.0 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 58% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings CA Paranaense PR have won three, drawn two and lost four. Three of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, CA Paranaense PR won one and CR Vasco da Gama RJ won three. The last time they met, on 10 May 2026, it finished CA Paranaense PR 0-1 CR Vasco da Gama RJ: CA Paranaense PR had 9 shots to 16, 47% of the ball, five yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make CA Paranaense PR the likelier winners, but the meetings favour CR Vasco da Gama RJ. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 58%; six of the last nine meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 58%.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Six of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); CA Paranaense PR or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); CR Vasco da Gama RJ or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: CA Paranaense PR 1-1 CR Vasco da Gama RJ (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).