AD Ceuta vs Sporting Gijon
AD Ceuta scored under 1.5 in 5 of 6 at home · Sporting Gijon conceded under 1.5 in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 75% · AD Ceuta: only games against sides at Sporting Gijon's level · Sporting Gijon: only games against sides at AD Ceuta's level
Match details. LaLiga 2, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 16:15 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta. The referee is Ojaos Valera.
What's at stake. AD Ceuta are 22nd on 5 points after 11 games, 2 points behind Albacete. A win would take them above Albacete. Sporting Gijon are 8th on 19 points after 11 games, level on points with Mallorca, 1 point clear of Oviedo. A win would take them above Mallorca.
Form. AD Ceuta have won one, drawn two and lost seven of their last ten, 0.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L D W. In this competition AD Ceuta have gone L L L D W D. Sporting Gijon have won six, drawn none and lost four of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W L. In this competition Sporting Gijon have gone L W W W L W.
The numbers. AD Ceuta score one and concede 1.7 a game in their last six at home, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. AD Ceuta average 18.6 shots (5.0 on target), 7.5 corners and 2.9 cards a game, with 54% of the ball. Sporting Gijon score one and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Sporting Gijon average 12.1 shots (4.0 on target), 4.2 corners and 3.2 cards a game, with 51% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last two meetings AD Ceuta have won one, drawn none and lost one. One of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 3 May 2026, it finished AD Ceuta 2-1 Sporting Gijon: AD Ceuta had 17 shots to 9, 54% of the ball, seven yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 34% against the records' 64%.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 47%.
The read. No firm call: Sporting Gijon are the better side, but not at this price. A draw is live. An open game. Sporting Gijon are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Sporting Gijon.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.28, 72% on the records (AD Ceuta: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 6 at home; Sporting Gijon: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 away). Backup: Under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.43. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: AD Ceuta 2-1 Sporting Gijon (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).