Guerreros de Autlan vs Halcones Negros FC
Match details. Liga Premier Serie A, Apertura - 9. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 23:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Guerreros de Autlan are 7th on 9 points after 7 games, 4 points behind Guerreros del Pacifico. Halcones Negros FC are 5th on 14 points after 8 games, level on points with FC Santiago.
Form. Guerreros de Autlan have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D W L W. Halcones Negros FC have won four, drawn one and lost three of their last eight, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W L. In this competition Halcones Negros FC have gone L W W W L W.
The numbers. Guerreros de Autlan score two and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Guerreros de Autlan average 11.6 shots (5.4 on target), 5.6 corners and 2.6 cards a game. Halcones Negros FC score 2.5 and concede 1.5 a game over their last eight, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. Halcones Negros FC average 5.0 corners and 1.8 cards a game.
The case against. Guerreros de Autlan's record still gives them 44% to win.
The read. Halcones Negros FC to win. An open game. Halcones Negros FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Halcones Negros FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 74%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Guerreros de Autlan 1-2 Halcones Negros FC (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).