CA Progreso vs Defensor Sporting
Match details. Primera Division, Clausura - 13. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 14:00 Lagos time. It is played at Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo. The referee is Esteban Ostojich.
What's at stake. CA Progreso are 7th on 19 points after 12 games, level on points with Racing Montevideo, 1 point clear of Juventud. A win would take them above Racing Montevideo. Defensor Sporting are 15th on 9 points after 12 games, level on points with Cerro Largo, 1 point clear of Central Espanol. A win would take them above Cerro Largo.
Form. CA Progreso have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D L W. In this competition CA Progreso have gone W W D L W W. Defensor Sporting have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L L W. In this competition Defensor Sporting have gone D L L L W L.
The numbers. CA Progreso score 1.3 and concede one a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. CA Progreso average 8.0 shots (4.0 on target), 3.5 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 42% of the ball. Defensor Sporting score 1.2 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. Defensor Sporting average 7.0 shots (4.0 on target), 4.8 corners and 3.8 cards a game, with 50% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings CA Progreso have won one, drawn three and lost five. Six of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in seven. In the last four, CA Progreso won one and Defensor Sporting won three. The last time they met, on 27 Apr 2026, it finished CA Progreso 0-1 Defensor Sporting.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: CA Progreso are the stronger side on form and the table, but both teams' records favour CA Progreso; the meetings favour Defensor Sporting. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%; six of the last nine meetings went over 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Defensor Sporting's record still gives them 30% to win. The meetings do not back them. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The read. CA Progreso or the draw. An open game. CA Progreso are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CA Progreso; the meetings favour Defensor Sporting. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Six of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.34, 75% on the records (CA Progreso: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 10; Defensor Sporting: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.26. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: CA Progreso or Under 2.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: CA Progreso 2-1 Defensor Sporting (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).