Delfin SC vs CSD Independiente del Valle
Match details. Copa Ecuador, Semi-finals. Kick-off is Thu 29 Oct, 01:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Jocay, Manta.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Delfin SC have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W D W. CSD Independiente del Valle have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W W D.
The numbers. Delfin SC score 1.6 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Delfin SC average 10.3 shots (3.4 on target), 4.8 corners and 3.0 cards a game. CSD Independiente del Valle score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. CSD Independiente del Valle average 12.0 shots (4.8 on target), 5.5 corners and 1.7 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Delfin SC have won two, drawn two and lost six. Three of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, two were drawn and CSD Independiente del Valle won two. The last time they met, on 15 Aug 2026, it finished Delfin SC 2-3 CSD Independiente del Valle: Delfin SC had 7 shots to 26, 29% of the ball, four yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 49%; seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. A knockout game (Semi-finals) with penalties if level, and CSD Independiente del Valle are not clearly stronger. Delfin SC's record still gives them 34% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game.
The read. CSD Independiente del Valle or the draw. A tight game. CSD Independiente del Valle are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour CSD Independiente del Valle. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 49%. Seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: CSD Independiente del Valle or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); CSD Independiente del Valle or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Delfin SC 1-1 CSD Independiente del Valle (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).