Bury FC vs Leek Town FC

Match details. Northern Premier League Premier, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is Tue 27 Oct, 20:45 Lagos time. It is played at Gigg Lane, Bury.

What's at stake. Bury FC are 12th on 19 points after 11 games, 1 point behind Lancaster City, level on points with Whitby Town. A win would take them above Lancaster City. Leek Town FC are 16th on 14 points after 13 games, 1 point behind Hyde United, level on points with Ashton United. A win would take them above Hyde United.

Form. Bury FC have won five, drawn none and lost four of their last nine, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L W. In this competition Bury FC have gone W L W L W L. Leek Town FC have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D W L. In this competition Leek Town FC have gone W D D W L L.

The numbers. Bury FC score 2.1 and concede one a game over their last nine, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. Bury FC average 15.3 shots (6.3 on target), 10.0 corners and 1.0 cards a game, with 58% of the ball. Leek Town FC score 2.3 and concede 2.2 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets. Leek Town FC average 4.4 shots (2.3 on target), 4.3 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 68% against the records' 46%.

The read. No firm call: Bury FC are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Bury FC the likelier winners; Bury FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Bury FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 83%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Bury FC Over 1.5 Goals (Bury FC's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Bury FC 2-1 Leek Town FC (10% chance).