Gainsborough Trinity vs Curzon Ashton FC
Match details. Northern Premier League Premier, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Tue 27 Oct, 20:45 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Gainsborough Trinity are 4th on 28 points after 14 games, level on points with Guiseley AFC, level on points with Avro. A win would take them above Guiseley AFC. Curzon Ashton FC are 9th on 22 points after 13 games, 1 point behind Warrington Town, 2 points clear of Alfreton Town. A win would take them above Warrington Town.
Form. Gainsborough Trinity have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W. In this competition Gainsborough Trinity have gone W W W W W L. Curzon Ashton FC have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W W W. In this competition Curzon Ashton FC have gone L L W W W W.
The numbers. Gainsborough Trinity score 1.4 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Gainsborough Trinity average 4.0 shots (1.9 on target), 3.1 corners and 1.1 cards a game, with 48% of the ball. Curzon Ashton FC score two and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Curzon Ashton FC average 6.2 shots (3.0 on target), 3.0 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 51% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Gainsborough Trinity the likelier winners, but Gainsborough Trinity are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Curzon Ashton FC.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 65%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.21, 82% on the records (Gainsborough Trinity: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Curzon Ashton FC: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Leave: Gainsborough Trinity or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); Curzon Ashton FC or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Gainsborough Trinity 2-1 Curzon Ashton FC (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).