KF Kika vs KF Ferizaj

Match details. Liga e Pare, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 13:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. KF Kika are 16th on 9 points after 11 games, level on points with KF Lepenci, 2 points clear of Tefik Canga. A win would take them above KF Lepenci. KF Ferizaj are 5th on 19 points after 11 games, 1 point behind Trepça'89, level on points with Dinamo Ferizaj. A win would take them above Trepça'89.

Form. KF Kika have won one, drawn five and lost four of their last ten league games, 0.8 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L L L D D. In this competition KF Kika have gone L L L D D W. KF Ferizaj have won five, drawn four and lost one of their last ten league games, 1.9 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W W W D D. In this competition KF Ferizaj have gone W W W D D W.

The numbers. KF Kika score 0.6 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. KF Kika average 4.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game. KF Ferizaj score two and concede 0.6 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. KF Ferizaj average 7.3 corners and 1.7 cards a game.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 72% against the records' 42%.

The read. No firm call: KF Ferizaj are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make KF Ferizaj the likelier winners; KF Ferizaj are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 37%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: KF Kika 0-1 KF Ferizaj (14% chance).

The agreed story. No side to back (KF Ferizaj the favourite), a tight game.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.