Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 3. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time.
Form. CD Guarnizo have won one, drawn four and lost five of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D D W L. Selaya FC have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W L W.
The numbers. CD Guarnizo score one and concede 1.8 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Selaya FC score 1.4 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Selaya FC average 6.0 shots (2.7 on target), 2.7 corners and 2.7 cards a game.
The case against. CD Guarnizo's record still gives them 32% to win.
The read. Selaya FC to win. An open game. Selaya FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Selaya FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: CD Guarnizo Under 1.5 goals (Selaya FC's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: CD Guarnizo 1-2 Selaya FC (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).