Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 9. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 12:00 Lagos time.
Form. UD Almeria B have won five, drawn one and lost one of their last seven league games, 2.3 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W W D W L. CD Atletico de Marbella Paraiso have won one, drawn two and lost four of their last seven league games, 0.7 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: D L L L W.
The numbers. UD Almeria B score 1.7 and concede 0.6 a game over their last seven, with three clean sheets. UD Almeria B average 8.0 shots (4.7 on target), 2.1 corners and 2.6 cards a game. CD Atletico de Marbella Paraiso score 0.7 and concede 1.3 a game over their last seven, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. CD Atletico de Marbella Paraiso average 3.0 corners and 4.0 cards a game.
The read. UD Almeria B to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make UD Almeria B the likelier winners; UD Almeria B are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour UD Almeria B. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 36%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: UD Almeria B 1-0 CD Atletico de Marbella Paraiso (12% chance).
The agreed story. UD Almeria B or the draw, a tight game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).