Match details. Gamma Ethniki, Group 8 - 5. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Ialissos FC are 12th on 0 points after 4 games, 3 points behind Apollon Kalyt.. A win would take them level on points with Apollon Kalyt.. Ionikos Nikea FC are 7th on 4 points after 4 games, level on points with Ethnikos Piraeus, level on points with Proodeftiki. A win would take them above Ethnikos Piraeus.
Form. Ialissos FC have won two, drawn none and lost eight of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L. Ionikos Nikea FC have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D L D.
The numbers. Ialissos FC score 0.7 and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and five games without a goal. Ialissos FC average 5.3 shots (1.7 on target), 1.0 corners and 2.7 cards a game. Ionikos Nikea FC score 0.8 and concede 1.5 a game in their last six away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Ionikos Nikea FC average 9.4 shots (3.4 on target), 5.2 corners and 2.9 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last two meetings Ialissos FC have won none, drawn one and lost one. One of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 1 Feb 2020, it finished Ialissos FC 2-2 Ionikos Nikea FC.
The case against. Ialissos FC's record still gives them 33% to win.
The read. Ionikos Nikea FC to win. A tight game. Ionikos Nikea FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Ionikos Nikea FC. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 44%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.21, 88% on the records (Ialissos FC: under 3.5 goals in 9 of 10; Ionikos Nikea FC: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 6 away). Backup: Ionikos Nikea FC Over 0.5 Goals at 1.39. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Ialissos FC 0-1 Ionikos Nikea FC (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).