Apollon Smyrnis vs Ethnikos OFPF
Match details. Gamma Ethniki, Group 8 - 5. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time. It is played at Georgios Kamaras Stadium, Athens.
What's at stake. Apollon Smyrnis are 4th on 9 points after 4 games, 2 points behind Afantou, 5 points clear of Diagoras. A win would take them above Afantou. Ethnikos OFPF are 6th on 4 points after 4 games, level on points with Diagoras, level on points with Ionikos. A win would take them above Diagoras.
Form. Apollon Smyrnis have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W D. Ethnikos OFPF have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D W L.
The numbers. Apollon Smyrnis score 1.4 and concede 0.2 a game in their last five at home, with four clean sheets. Apollon Smyrnis average 11.7 shots (3.3 on target), 5.0 corners and 2.7 cards a game. Ethnikos OFPF score 0.4 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Ethnikos OFPF average 8.5 shots (2.4 on target), 4.0 corners and 3.6 cards a game.
Head to head. Ethnikos OFPF have won all of the last two meetings. One of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in none. The last time they met, on 24 Apr 2024, it finished Apollon Smyrnis 0-3 Ethnikos OFPF.
The read. Apollon Smyrnis to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Apollon Smyrnis the likelier winners; Apollon Smyrnis are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Apollon Smyrnis. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 27%.
The bets. Best bet: Apollon Smyrnis or Draw at 1.22, 87% on the records (Apollon Smyrnis unbeaten in 5 of 5 at home; Ethnikos OFPF failed to win 4 of 5 away). Backup: Under 2.5 Goals at 1.43. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Apollon Smyrnis to Win (the signs point different ways); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Apollon Smyrnis 1-0 Ethnikos OFPF (18% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).