Match details. LaLiga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Sat 31 Oct, 16:15 Lagos time. It is played at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid.
What's at stake. Rayo Vallecano are 16th on 9 points after 9 games, 1 point behind Elche, level on points with Getafe. A win would take them above Elche. Celta are 9th on 12 points after 10 games, level on points with Athletic Club, level on points with Villarreal. A win would take them above Athletic Club.
Form. Rayo Vallecano have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D D W. Celta have won three, drawn five and lost two of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W L D.
The numbers. Rayo Vallecano score 1.3 and concede 2.1 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets. Rayo Vallecano average 12.5 shots (4.5 on target), 5.3 corners and 3.3 cards a game, with 52% of the ball. Celta score 0.6 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Celta average 10.8 shots (3.5 on target), 2.8 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Rayo Vallecano have won two, drawn five and lost three. Four of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, Rayo Vallecano won two, one was drawn and Celta won one. The last time they met, on 18 Jan 2026, it finished Rayo Vallecano 0-3 Celta: Rayo Vallecano had 14 shots to 11, 51% of the ball, seven yellow cards.
The case against. Celta's record still gives them 32% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%. Not everything agrees on goals: six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The read. Rayo Vallecano or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. Celta are the stronger side on form and the table.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Rayo Vallecano Over 0.5 goals (Celta's own games don't back it (3 of 7)); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Celta (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).