Fiorentina vs Atalanta
Match details. Serie A, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Thu 29 Oct, 20:45 Lagos time. It is played at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence. The referee is Federico La Penna.
What's at stake. Fiorentina are 19th on 4 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Parma, 1 point clear of Venezia. A win would take them above Parma. Atalanta are 12th on 10 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Bologna, level on points with Genoa. A win would take them above Bologna.
Team news. Fiorentina are without A. Atta (abdominal strain), F. Parisi (knee injury), M. Pongracic (muscle injury), R. Sottil (back injury), L. Ranieri (leg injury), A. Atta (abdominal strain). Atalanta are without R. Bellanova (thigh injury), I. Hien (muscle injury), F. Kessie (calf injury), S. Kolasinac (thigh injury), O. Kossounou (thigh injury), G. Raspadori (thigh injury). R. Bellanova is their centre-back.
Form. Fiorentina have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L D W. Atalanta have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L W W.
The numbers. Fiorentina score 1.7 and concede 1.7 a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet. Fiorentina average 13.4 shots (5.5 on target), 4.5 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 46% of the ball. Atalanta score 0.8 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Atalanta average 13.6 shots (4.3 on target), 4.9 corners and 1.3 cards a game, with 46% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Fiorentina have won four, drawn two and lost four. Four of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, Fiorentina won one, one was drawn and Atalanta won two. The last time they met, on 22 May 2026, it finished Fiorentina 1-1 Atalanta: Fiorentina had 11 shots to 21, 40% of the ball, two yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 72%; six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Atalanta's record still gives them 51% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The read. Fiorentina or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. Atalanta are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Atalanta. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 72%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.14, 77% on the records (Fiorentina: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 8; Atalanta: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 7). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.16. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Fiorentina 2-1 Atalanta (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).