Monza vs Napoli
Match details. Serie A, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 20:45 Lagos time. It is played at Stadio Brianteo, Monza. The referee is Giovanni Ayroldi.
What's at stake. Monza are 15th on 7 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Sassuolo, level on points with Genoa. A win would take them above Sassuolo. Napoli are 10th on 11 points after 8 games, 2 points behind Cagliari, 1 point clear of Atalanta. A win would take them above Cagliari.
Team news. Monza are without M. Folorunsho (coach's decision), Y. Maye (muscle injury), M. Pessina (knee injury), J. Ziolkowski (foot injury), M. Folorunsho (coach's decision), Y. Maye (muscle injury). Napoli are without Alisson Santos (muscle injury), B. Badiashile (injury), A. Buongiorno (knee injury), David Neres (thigh injury), C. Favasuli (thigh injury), L. Spinazzola (thigh injury).
Form. Monza have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W L. Napoli have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L L W.
The numbers. Monza score 1.9 and concede 1.8 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. Monza average 13.3 shots (5.6 on target), 4.7 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 45% of the ball. Napoli score 1.6 and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Napoli average 12.3 shots (5.6 on target), 4.8 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 51% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last six meetings Monza have won one, drawn one and lost four. Two of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. In the last four, one was drawn and Napoli won three. The last time they met, on 19 Apr 2025, it finished Monza 0-1 Napoli: Monza had 8 shots to 16, 41% of the ball, six yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 63%; four of the last six meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Monza's record still gives them 30% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: four of the last six meetings went under 2.5.
The read. Napoli to win. A draw is live. An open game. Their goals for and against make Napoli the likelier winners; Napoli are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Napoli; the meetings favour Napoli. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 63%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Monza 1-2 Napoli (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).