Match details. Liga Primera Premier. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 19:00 Lagos time.
Form. Montaneses FC have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W L. Lobos Ulmx have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L D.
The numbers. Montaneses FC score 2.4 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Montaneses FC average 9.6 shots (3.2 on target), 3.1 corners and 2.9 cards a game. Lobos Ulmx score one and concede 2.2 a game in their last six away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Lobos Ulmx average 5.2 shots (3.2 on target), 4.0 corners and 2.2 cards a game.
The case against. Lobos Ulmx's record still gives them 39% to win.
The read. Montaneses FC to win. Their goals for and against make Montaneses FC the likelier winners; Montaneses FC are the stronger side on form and the table.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Montaneses FC 1-0 Lobos Ulmx (10% chance).
The agreed story. Montaneses FC or the draw, goals in between.
The league run. Montaneses FC: up and down in the league (L W L W L). Lobos Ulmx: up and down in the league (W L W L D).
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).