Match details. Campeonato de Portugal. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time.
Form. Sport Benfica Castelo Branco have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L L. O Elvas Cad have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W W.
The numbers. Sport Benfica Castelo Branco score 1.3 and concede 1.8 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. Sport Benfica Castelo Branco average 8.0 shots (3.6 on target), 5.0 corners and 2.2 cards a game. O Elvas Cad score 1.9 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and three games without a goal. O Elvas Cad average 8.4 shots (2.5 on target), 4.2 corners and 1.5 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 46%.
The case against. Sport Benfica Castelo Branco's record still gives them 28% to win.
The read. O Elvas Cad to win. Their goals for and against make O Elvas Cad the likelier winners; O Elvas Cad are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour O Elvas Cad.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Sport Benfica Castelo Branco 1-2 O Elvas Cad (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).