Match details. Campeonato de Portugal. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time.
Form. SC Salgueiros have won three, drawn six and lost one of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D W W D. AD Ovarense have won five, drawn three and lost one of their last nine, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W W W.
The numbers. SC Salgueiros score one and concede 0.9 a game in their last seven at home, with two clean sheets. SC Salgueiros average 10.3 shots (3.5 on target), 4.0 corners and 2.3 cards a game. AD Ovarense score 2.2 and concede 0.8 a game over their last nine, with four clean sheets. AD Ovarense average 14.7 shots (4.8 on target), 7.5 corners and 2.3 cards a game.
The read. AD Ovarense to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make AD Ovarense the likelier winners; AD Ovarense are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AD Ovarense. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 20%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: SC Salgueiros 0-1 AD Ovarense (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).