FAFCA

16:00Sun 25 Oct

ADC

FC Alpendorada vs AD Castro Daire

CLASS E

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THE BETLIVELY · 10-ODDS · 100-ODDS ·…

TOTAL GOALS

Class E

FAv

Under 3.5 Goals

FC Alpendorada v AD Castro Daire

Portugal - Campeonato… · 16:00

1.20odds

83%book

-3edge

2/2angles

THE READ

Match details. Campeonato de Portugal. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time.

Form. FC Alpendorada have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W L L. AD Castro Daire have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L D W.

The numbers. FC Alpendorada score 1.6 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. FC Alpendorada average 9.4 shots (3.4 on target), 5.1 corners and 2.4 cards a game. AD Castro Daire score 0.9 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and five games without a goal. AD Castro Daire average 8.8 shots (3.5 on target), 2.7 corners and 1.3 cards a game.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 27% against the records' 47%.

The read. No firm call: AD Castro Daire are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. AD Castro Daire are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AD Castro Daire. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 41%.

The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.19, 80% on the records (FC Alpendorada: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 7; AD Castro Daire: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 8). Leave: AD Castro Daire or Under 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); AD Castro Daire Over 0.5 goals (AD Castro Daire's own games don't back it (4 of 8)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: FC Alpendorada 1-1 AD Castro Daire (14% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

FCA 6 of 7 (86%) · ADC 8 of 8 (100%)92.9%

FC Alpendorada: under 4.5 goals in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · AD Castro Daire: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 93% · FC Alpendorada: only games against sides at AD Castro Daire's level · AD Castro Daire: only games against sides at FC Alpendorada's level

Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

FCA 6 of 7 (86%) · ADC 8 of 8 (100%)92.9%

FC Alpendorada: under 5.5 goals in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · AD Castro Daire: under 5.5 goals in 8 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 93% · FC Alpendorada: only games against sides at AD Castro Daire's level · AD Castro Daire: only games against sides at FC Alpendorada's level

Under 3.5 GoalsMAININ CODES

1.20

FCA 5 of 7 (71%) · ADC 7 of 8 (88%)79.5%

FC Alpendorada: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · AD Castro Daire: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 79% · FC Alpendorada: only games against sides at AD Castro Daire's level · AD Castro Daire: only games against sides at FC Alpendorada's level

Under 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.56

FCA 3 of 7 (43%) · ADC 6 of 8 (75%)58.9%

FC Alpendorada: under 2.5 goals in 3 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · AD Castro Daire: under 2.5 goals in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 59% · FC Alpendorada: only games against sides at AD Castro Daire's level · AD Castro Daire: only games against sides at FC Alpendorada's level

Left off the list: AD Castro Daire or Under 2.5 Goals (the numbers (78%) and the records (100%) are 22 points apart, and nothing settles it); AD Castro Daire Over 0.5 goals (AD Castro Daire's own games don't back it (4 of 8)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 13.9%

FC Alpendorada goals →

AD Castro Daire goals ↓

0-010%

1-010%

2-06%

3-02%

4-00.6%

5-00.1%

0-111%

1-114%

2-17%

3-13%

4-10.8%

5-10.2%

0-27%

1-28%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.5%

5-20.1%

0-33%

1-33%

2-32%

3-30.7%

4-30.2%

5-30.0%

0-40.9%

1-41%

2-40.6%

3-40.2%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.2%

1-50.3%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

FC ALPENDORADAWLWLDLLWDL1.10 PPG

AD CASTRO DAIRELWLDLWDLWD1.20 PPG

THE NUMBERS

FC ALPENDORADA HOMExAD CASTRO DAIRE AWAY

1.30SCORED A GAME0.901.30CONCEDED A GAME0.8040%CLEAN SHEETS30%5.10CORNERS A GAME2.672.40CARDS A GAME1.33

TRENDS

FC Alpendorada have scored in 80% of their games.

AD Castro Daire have scored in 50% of their games.

FC Alpendorada kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

AD Castro Daire kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards