Match details. Campeonato de Portugal. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time.
Form. AD Os Limianos have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W W. CD Celoricense have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L W W.
The numbers. AD Os Limianos score 1.9 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets. AD Os Limianos average 9.4 shots (4.1 on target), 4.3 corners and 2.0 cards a game. CD Celoricense score one and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. CD Celoricense average 8.4 shots (2.0 on target), 4.1 corners and 2.5 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 53% against the records' 28%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 41%.
The read. No firm call: AD Os Limianos are the better side, but not at this price. Their goals for and against make AD Os Limianos the likelier winners; AD Os Limianos are the stronger side on form and the table.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Leave: AD Os Limianos or Both Teams Score (the signs point different ways); Over 0.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); CD Celoricense Over 0.5 goals (CD Celoricense's own games don't back it (4 of 8)). Predicted score: AD Os Limianos 1-1 CD Celoricense (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).