SPAIN AMATEUR - TERCERA FEDERACION, GROUP 14

CZCDZ

12:15Sun 25 Oct

CDA

CD Zafra vs CD Azuaga

CLASS E

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THE READ

Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 14, Group 14 - 8. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 12:15 Lagos time.

What's at stake. CD Zafra are 8th on 9 points after 7 games, 1 point behind Villafranca, level on points with Cabeza Buey. A win would take them above Villafranca. CD Azuaga are 2nd on 18 points after 7 games, 1 point behind Llerenense, 1 point clear of Moralo. A win would take them above Llerenense.

Form. CD Zafra have won two, drawn three and lost two of their last seven league games, 1.3 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: D L D D L. In this competition CD Zafra have gone D L D D L W. CD Azuaga have won six, drawn none and lost two of their last eight league games, 2.2 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W L W W W.

The numbers. CD Zafra score 1.3 and concede 1.1 a game over their last seven, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. CD Zafra average 9.7 shots (4.0 on target), 4.7 corners and 5.3 cards a game. CD Azuaga score 2.1 and concede 0.9 a game over their last eight, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. CD Azuaga average 13.3 shots (4.0 on target), 5.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game.

The case against. CD Zafra's record still gives them 33% to win.

The read. CD Azuaga or the draw. A tight game. CD Azuaga are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 41%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: CD Zafra 1-1 CD Azuaga (14% chance).

The agreed story. CD Azuaga or the draw, a tight game.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

CD Azuaga or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

CDA 5 of 5 (100%) · CDZ 5 of 7 (71%)77.1%

CD Azuaga: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · CD Zafra: the bet landed in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 86% · CD Azuaga: only games against sides at CD Zafra's level

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

CDZ 7 of 7 (100%) · CDA 5 of 5 (100%)97%

CD Zafra: under 5.5 goals in 7 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · CD Azuaga: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 100% · CD Azuaga: only games against sides at CD Zafra's level

Under 4.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

CDZ 6 of 7 (86%) · CDA 4 of 5 (80%)83.9%

CD Zafra: under 4.5 goals in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · CD Azuaga: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 83% · CD Azuaga: only games against sides at CD Zafra's level

Left off the list: CD Azuaga or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); CD Azuaga or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); CD Azuaga Over 0.5 Goals (CD Azuaga's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 13.9%

CD Zafra goals →

CD Azuaga goals ↓

0-010%

1-010%

2-06%

3-03%

4-00.8%

5-00.2%

0-110%

1-114%

2-18%

3-13%

4-10.9%

5-10.2%

0-27%

1-28%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.5%

5-20.1%

0-33%

1-33%

2-32%

3-30.7%

4-30.2%

5-30.1%

0-40.8%

1-40.9%

2-40.6%

3-40.2%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.2%

1-50.2%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

CD ZAFRAWWLDDLD1.29 PPG

CD AZUAGALLDWWWWWLW1.90 PPG

THE NUMBERS

CD ZAFRA HOMExCD AZUAGA AWAY

1.29SCORED A GAME1.701.14CONCEDED A GAME0.8029%CLEAN SHEETS40%29%FAILED TO SCORE14%4.67CORNERS A GAME5.005.33CARDS A GAME2.00

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

649 OF 684

PRICE NOT KEPT

The league averages 5.0+ cards a game.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

TRENDS

CD Zafra have scored in 71% of their games.

CD Azuaga have scored in 60% of their games.

CD Zafra kept a clean sheet in 29% of their games.

CD Azuaga kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards