Match details. Campeonato de Portugal. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 11:30 Lagos time.
Form. Estrela Calheta FC have won one, drawn two and lost four of their last seven, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D L L. CF Uniao de Lamas have won two, drawn five and lost three of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W D L.
The numbers. Estrela Calheta FC score one and concede 2.7 a game over their last seven, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Estrela Calheta FC average 7.0 shots (3.5 on target), 2.2 corners and 2.7 cards a game. CF Uniao de Lamas score 1.6 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. CF Uniao de Lamas average 8.8 shots (3.5 on target), 5.1 corners and 2.8 cards a game.
The case against. Estrela Calheta FC's record still gives them 27% to win.
The read. CF Uniao de Lamas to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make CF Uniao de Lamas the likelier winners; CF Uniao de Lamas are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); CF Uniao de Lamas or Over 1.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); CF Uniao de Lamas Over 0.5 Goals (CF Uniao de Lamas's own games don't back it (4 of 9)). Predicted score: Estrela Calheta FC 1-2 CF Uniao de Lamas (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).