Millwall FC vs Derby County
Match details. Championship, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is Sat 31 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time. It is played at The Den, London.
What's at stake. Millwall FC are 13th on 15 points after 12 games, 1 point behind Sheffield Utd, level on points with Bristol City. A win would take them above Sheffield Utd. Derby County are 23rd on 7 points after 12 games, 1 point behind Burnley, 2 points clear of Preston. A win would take them above Burnley.
Form. Millwall FC have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L W D. Derby County have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L D D.
The numbers. Millwall FC score 1.3 and concede 1.5 a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Millwall FC average 5.8 corners and 2.1 cards a game. Derby County score one and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Derby County average 5.7 corners and 2.3 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 57% against the records' 34%. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The read. No firm call: Millwall FC are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Millwall FC the likelier winners; Millwall FC are the stronger side on form and the table. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.26, 75% on the records (Millwall FC: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Derby County: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Backup: Millwall FC Over 0.5 Goals at 1.16. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Derby County Under 1.5 goals (Millwall FC's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Millwall FC Over 1.5 goals (Derby County's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Under 4.5 Goals (Millwall FC are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Millwall FC 2-1 Derby County (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).