BURBUR

16:00Sat 31 Oct

POR

Burnley vs Portsmouth FC

CLASS E

THE READ

Match details. Championship, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is Sat 31 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time. It is played at Turf Moor, Burnley.

What's at stake. Burnley are 22nd on 8 points after 12 games, 3 points behind Watford, 1 point clear of Derby. A win would take them level on points with Watford. Portsmouth FC are 11th on 18 points after 12 games, level on points with Blackburn, 2 points clear of Sheffield Utd. A win would take them above Blackburn.

Form. Burnley have won one, drawn four and lost five of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D W D. Portsmouth FC have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W L.

The numbers. Burnley score 1.2 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Burnley average 13.6 shots (4.2 on target), 4.7 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 47% of the ball. Portsmouth FC score 0.6 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Portsmouth FC average 5.9 corners and 1.5 cards a game.

Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Burnley the likelier winners, but Portsmouth FC are the stronger side on form and the table. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%.

The read. A draw. Little separates them, and both sides draw often.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Portsmouth FC win or both teams score (the call is a draw); Portsmouth FC or Over 1.5 Goals (the call is a draw). Predicted score: Burnley 1-1 Portsmouth FC (12% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.14

BUR 5 of 5 (100%) · POR 5 of 5 (100%)91.6%

Burnley: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Portsmouth FC: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 85% · Burnley: only games against sides at Portsmouth FC's level · Portsmouth FC: only games against sides at Burnley's level

Over 1.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.28

BUR 5 of 5 (100%) · POR 2 of 5 (40%)59.5%

Burnley: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Portsmouth FC: over 1.5 goals in 2 of 5 away · both last 10: 85% · Burnley: only games against sides at Portsmouth FC's level · Portsmouth FC: only games against sides at Burnley's level

BURNLEY GOALS

Burnley Over 0.5 goalsHELD · the odds board 83%

1.21

BUR 5 of 5 (100%) · POR 3 of 5 (60%)62.4%

Burnley scored in 5 of 5 at home · Portsmouth FC conceded in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 85% · Burnley: only games against sides at Portsmouth FC's level · Portsmouth FC: only games against sides at Burnley's level

Burnley Under 1.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.64

BUR 4 of 5 (80%) · POR 4 of 5 (80%)57.7%

Burnley scored under 1.5 in 4 of 5 at home · Portsmouth FC conceded under 1.5 in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 70% · Burnley: only games against sides at Portsmouth FC's level · Portsmouth FC: only games against sides at Burnley's level

PORTSMOUTH FC GOALS

Portsmouth FC Over 0.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.40

BUR 3 of 5 (60%) · POR 5 of 5 (100%)59.8%

Portsmouth FC scored in 3 of 5 away · Burnley conceded in 5 of 5 at home · both last 10: 80% · Portsmouth FC: only games against sides at Burnley's level · Burnley: only games against sides at Portsmouth FC's level

Left off the list: Portsmouth FC win or both teams score (the call is a draw); Portsmouth FC or Over 1.5 Goals (the call is a draw)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 12.5%

Burnley goals →

Portsmouth FC goals ↓

0-08%

1-010%

2-09%

3-05%

4-02%

5-00.6%

0-17%

1-113%

2-19%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.7%

0-24%

1-26%

2-25%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.4%

0-31%

1-32%

2-32%

3-31.0%

4-30.4%

5-30.1%

0-40.4%

1-40.6%

2-40.5%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.1%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).

FORM · LAST 10

BURNLEYLLDWDLDLDL0.70 PPG

PORTSMOUTH FCWDWWLDDWLL1.50 PPG

THE NUMBERS

BURNLEY HOMExPORTSMOUTH FC AWAY

1.42SCORED A GAME1.332.08CONCEDED A GAME1.2510%CLEAN SHEETS30%4.67CORNERS A GAME5.921.92CARDS A GAME1.50

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

0.67POINTS A GAME1.50-0.67GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.08-0.8SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+0.81.0LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.012LEAGUE GAMES12

Portsmouth FC: the quality side - more points a game, a better goal difference, better form (last 5).

PORTSMOUTH FC 0:2 HANDICAP

–

373 OF 433

NO PRICE YET

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

94%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

65%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

89%

OKAY · 85/90

BURNLEY OR DRAW

66%

NO · 80/85

PORTSMOUTH FC OR DRAW

86%

VERY GOOD · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (12 and 12 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

BURNLEYxPORTSMOUTH FC

6GAMES61.33SCORED A GAME1.001.67CONCEDED A GAME0.833.0GOALS IN THEIR GAMES1.8100%OVER 1.5 GOALS50%67%OVER 2.5 GOALS33%100%BOTH SCORE50%3.8CARDS IN THEIR GAMES4.610.4CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES8.2

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

Burnley have scored in 100% of their games.

Portsmouth FC have scored in 70% of their games.

Burnley kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

Portsmouth FC kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetsleague tableteam newscornerscards