Grimsby Town vs York City FC
Match details. League Two, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is Sat 31 Oct, 13:30 Lagos time. It is played at Blundell Park, Grimsby. The referee is A. Jackson.
What's at stake. Grimsby Town are 11th on 17 points after 13 games, 1 point behind Shrewsbury, level on points with Gillingham. A win would take them above Shrewsbury. York City FC are 5th on 20 points after 13 games, 1 point behind Crewe, 1 point clear of Walsall. A win would take them above Crewe.
Form. Grimsby Town have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L L D. York City FC have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D D D.
The numbers. Grimsby Town score one and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Grimsby Town average 16.0 shots (5.4 on target), 6.6 corners and 2.6 cards a game, with 53% of the ball. York City FC score 1.5 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. York City FC average 13.1 shots (3.8 on target), 5.5 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 57% of the ball.
Head to head. York City FC have won all of the last three meetings. Two of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 13 Mar 2012, it finished Grimsby Town 2-3 York City FC.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 47%; two of the last three meetings went over 2.5.
The case against. York City FC's record still gives them 52% to win. The meetings do not back them. Not everything agrees on goals: two of the last three meetings went over 2.5.
The read. Grimsby Town or the draw. A tight game. York City FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour York City FC; the meetings favour York City FC. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 47%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.55, 74% on the records (Grimsby Town: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 8; York City FC: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 8). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.18. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Grimsby Town 1-1 York City FC (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).