Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 16. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time.
Form. CD Cenicero have won one, drawn two and lost seven of their last ten, 0.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L W. CDFC La Calzada have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L W.
The numbers. CD Cenicero score 0.8 and concede two a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. CD Cenicero average 6.8 shots (3.2 on target), 3.0 corners and 3.2 cards a game. CDFC La Calzada score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. CDFC La Calzada average 5.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
The case against. CD Cenicero's record still gives them 23% to win.
The read. CDFC La Calzada to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make CDFC La Calzada the likelier winners; CDFC La Calzada are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CDFC La Calzada. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.
The bets. Best bet: CDFC La Calzada (Draw No Bet) at 1.27, 77% on the records (CDFC La Calzada won 6 of 9 (draws left out); CD Cenicero lost 7 of 8 (draws left out)). Leave: CDFC La Calzada or Under 2.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); CDFC La Calzada to Win (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: CD Cenicero 1-2 CDFC La Calzada (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).