CD Berceo vs CD Agoncillo
CD Agoncillo scored under 1.5 in 3 of 5 away · CD Berceo conceded under 1.5 in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 55% · CD Agoncillo: only games against sides at CD Berceo's level · CD Berceo: only games against sides at CD Agoncillo's level
Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 16. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time.
Form. CD Berceo have won six, drawn none and lost four of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W L. CD Agoncillo have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W W L.
The numbers. CD Berceo score 3.4 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. CD Berceo average 7.8 shots (4.8 on target), 2.0 corners and 2.3 cards a game. CD Agoncillo score two and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. CD Agoncillo average 12.0 shots (6.0 on target), 6.0 corners and 1.7 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 42% against the records' 65%.
The read. No firm call: CD Berceo are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make CD Berceo the likelier winners; CD Berceo are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CD Berceo. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 70%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.20, 92% on the records (CD Berceo: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; CD Agoncillo: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); CD Berceo Over 1.5 goals (CD Agoncillo's own games don't back it (2 of 5)). Predicted score: CD Berceo 2-1 CD Agoncillo (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).