Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 14. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time.
Form. CD Santa Amalia have won one, drawn five and lost four of their last ten league games, 0.8 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L D L D D. CD Cabeza Del Buey have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten league games, 1.5 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W D D D L.
The numbers. CD Santa Amalia score 0.7 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and five games without a goal. CD Santa Amalia average 10.0 shots (3.7 on target), 5.0 corners and 3.2 cards a game. CD Cabeza Del Buey score 1.2 and concede one a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.20, rated 90% (CD Santa Amalia: under 3.5 goals in 9 of 10; CD Cabeza Del Buey: under 3.5 goals in 9 of 10). Predicted score: CD Santa Amalia 0-1 CD Cabeza Del Buey (15% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (CD Cabeza Del Buey the favourite), a tight game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).