Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 13. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time.
Form. Deportivo Maritimo have won four, drawn none and lost six of their last ten league games, 1.2 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W L W L L. FC Cartagena B have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten league games, 1.0 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W L W D D.
The numbers. Deportivo Maritimo score 1.8 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Deportivo Maritimo average 9.9 shots (3.6 on target), 3.3 corners and 3.4 cards a game. FC Cartagena B score 1.2 and concede one a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. FC Cartagena B average 9.0 shots (4.9 on target), 4.8 corners and 3.5 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%.
The case against. Deportivo Maritimo's record still gives them 33% to win.
The read. FC Cartagena B to win. FC Cartagena B are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour FC Cartagena B.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Deportivo Maritimo 0-1 FC Cartagena B (8% chance).
The agreed story. FC Cartagena B or the draw, goals in between.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).