Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 9. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 12:00 Lagos time.
Form. Arenas Armilla CD have won four, drawn three and lost none of their last seven league games, 2.1 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: D W W D D. UD San Pedro have won five, drawn one and lost three of their last nine league games, 1.8 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W L L W W.
The numbers. Arenas Armilla CD score 2.1 and concede one a game over their last seven, with three clean sheets. Arenas Armilla CD average 7.8 shots (3.8 on target), 3.0 corners and 4.0 cards a game. UD San Pedro score 1.3 and concede 1.3 a game over their last nine, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 42%.
The case against. UD San Pedro's record still gives them 33% to win.
The read. Arenas Armilla CD to win. Their goals for and against make Arenas Armilla CD the likelier winners; Arenas Armilla CD are the stronger side on form and the table.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Arenas Armilla CD 2-1 UD San Pedro (10% chance).
The agreed story. Arenas Armilla CD or the draw, goals in between.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).