Match details. Serie D, Group B. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 14:30 Lagos time.
Form. Pro Palazzolo have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W D L. Piacenza Calcio have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W W.
The numbers. Pro Palazzolo score one and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Pro Palazzolo average 3.0 corners and 1.5 cards a game. Piacenza Calcio score 1.6 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Piacenza Calcio average 8.4 shots (3.6 on target), 6.3 corners and 1.6 cards a game.
The case against. Pro Palazzolo's record still gives them 21% to win.
The read. Piacenza Calcio to win. A tight game. Piacenza Calcio are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Piacenza Calcio. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 40%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Piacenza Calcio or Under 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Piacenza Calcio or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Piacenza Calcio or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Pro Palazzolo 0-1 Piacenza Calcio (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).