Match details. Serie D, Group A. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 14:30 Lagos time.
Form. ASD Imperia 1923 have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D L W. Celle Varazze have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L L L.
The numbers. ASD Imperia 1923 score 1.2 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. ASD Imperia 1923 average 5.0 corners and 2.5 cards a game. Celle Varazze score 0.6 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Celle Varazze average 10.2 shots (3.2 on target), 2.2 corners and 3.2 cards a game.
The case against. Celle Varazze's record still gives them 31% to win.
The read. ASD Imperia 1923 to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make ASD Imperia 1923 the likelier winners; ASD Imperia 1923 are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour ASD Imperia 1923. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 31%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: ASD Imperia 1923 or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); ASD Imperia 1923 or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: ASD Imperia 1923 1-0 Celle Varazze (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).