Bolton Wanderers vs Bristol City
Match details. Championship, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is Sat 31 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time. It is played at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton.
What's at stake. Bolton Wanderers are 18th on 14 points after 12 games, level on points with Wrexham, level on points with Charlton. A win would take them above Wrexham. Bristol City are 14th on 15 points after 12 games, level on points with Millwall, level on points with Lincoln. A win would take them above Millwall.
Form. Bolton Wanderers have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W L W. Bristol City have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L D W.
The numbers. Bolton Wanderers score one and concede 2.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Bolton Wanderers average 13.5 shots (4.8 on target), 5.1 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 47% of the ball. Bristol City score 1.4 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Bristol City average 14.9 shots (4.0 on target), 5.5 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Bolton Wanderers have won three, drawn two and lost four. Six of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Bolton Wanderers won one, one was drawn and Bristol City won two. The last time they met, on 25 Jan 2019, it finished Bolton Wanderers 1-2 Bristol City.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%; six of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.
The case against. Bolton Wanderers's record still gives them 23% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%. Not everything agrees on goals: six of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.
The read. Bristol City to win. A draw is live. A tight game. Both teams' records favour Bristol City; the meetings favour Bristol City. Their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.42, 74% on the records (Bolton Wanderers: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home; Bristol City: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 away). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.16. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Bolton Wanderers 0-1 Bristol City (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).