Port Vale vs Rochdale AFC
Match details. League Two, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is Sat 31 Oct, 13:30 Lagos time. It is played at Vale Park, Stoke-On-Trent. The referee is E. Heaslip.
What's at stake. Port Vale are 23rd on 12 points after 11 games, level on points with Rotherham, 6 points clear of Crawley Town. A win would take them above Rotherham. Rochdale AFC are 17th on 15 points after 13 games, level on points with Newport County, 1 point clear of Fleetwood Town. A win would take them above Newport County.
Form. Port Vale have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D W W. Rochdale AFC have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L D L.
The numbers. Port Vale score two and concede none a game in their last five at home, with five clean sheets. Port Vale average 11.1 shots (3.5 on target), 4.8 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 48% of the ball. Rochdale AFC score one and concede two a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Rochdale AFC average 10.8 shots (3.0 on target), 4.7 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 52% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last eight meetings Port Vale have won three, drawn one and lost four. Four of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Port Vale won one, one was drawn and Rochdale AFC won two. The last time they met, on 22 Feb 2022, it finished Port Vale 1-1 Rochdale AFC: Port Vale had 10 shots to 3, 50% of the ball, three yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 61% against the records' 38%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 31%.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game.
The read. No firm call: Port Vale are the better side, but not at this price. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Port Vale the likelier winners; Port Vale are the stronger side on form and the table. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 31%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.31, 70% on the records (Port Vale: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 7; Rochdale AFC: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 8). Backup: 1st Half - GG/NG: No at 1.16. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Rochdale AFC Under 1.5 goals (Rochdale AFC's own games don't back it (4 of 8)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Port Vale 1-1 Rochdale AFC (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).