Carlisle United vs Harrogate Town
Match details. National League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 20:45 Lagos time. It is played at Brunton Park, Carlisle.
What's at stake. Carlisle United are 11th on 20 points after 14 games, 1 point behind AFC Hornchurch, level on points with Kidderminster Harriers. A win would take them above AFC Hornchurch. Harrogate Town are 2nd on 31 points after 14 games, 7 points behind Boreham Wood, 3 points clear of Southend.
Form. Carlisle United have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D W W. Harrogate Town have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D W W.
The numbers. Carlisle United score 1.4 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Carlisle United average 6.6 corners and 1.7 cards a game. Harrogate Town score 2.1 and concede 1.1 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. Harrogate Town average 4.9 corners and 1.6 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Carlisle United have won one, drawn two and lost six. Two of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, Carlisle United won one, one was drawn and Harrogate Town won two. The last time they met, on 8 Mar 2025, it finished Carlisle United 0-1 Harrogate Town: Carlisle United had 13 shots to 16, 52% of the ball, six yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Carlisle United the likelier winners, but Harrogate Town are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Harrogate Town; the meetings favour Harrogate Town. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%; seven of the last nine meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Carlisle United's record still gives them 26% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%.
The read. Harrogate Town or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Carlisle United the likelier winners; Harrogate Town are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Harrogate Town; the meetings favour Harrogate Town. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Seven of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Harrogate Town or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Carlisle United Under 1.5 goals (Carlisle United's own games don't back it (4 of 9)). Predicted score: Carlisle United 1-1 Harrogate Town (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).