Villa Mitre de Bahia Blanca vs Douglas Haig
Match details. Torneo Federal A, Round of 16. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at El Fortin, Bahia Blanca.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Villa Mitre de Bahia Blanca have won three, drawn five and lost two of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D L W. Douglas Haig have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D W L.
The numbers. Villa Mitre de Bahia Blanca score 1.2 and concede 0.2 a game in their last five at home, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. Villa Mitre de Bahia Blanca average 7.2 shots (3.2 on target), 4.7 corners and 2.3 cards a game. Douglas Haig score 1.4 and concede none a game in their last five away, with five clean sheets and three games without a goal. Douglas Haig average 13.8 shots (4.0 on target), 5.8 corners and 2.5 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 34% against the records' 55%.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 30%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.19, 77% on the records (Villa Mitre de Bahia Blanca: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; Douglas Haig: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Leave: Douglas Haig or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Douglas Haig Over 0.5 Goals (Douglas Haig's own games don't back it (2 of 5)). Predicted score: Villa Mitre de Bahia Blanca 1-1 Douglas Haig (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).