CF Motril vs Atletico Malagueno
Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 9. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time.
Form. CF Motril have won four, drawn three and lost none of their last seven league games, 2.1 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W D W W W. Atletico Malagueno have won three, drawn two and lost two of their last seven league games, 1.6 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: D L W W D.
The numbers. CF Motril score 1.6 and concede 0.7 a game over their last seven, with three clean sheets. CF Motril average 14.6 shots (5.6 on target), 6.0 corners and 2.6 cards a game. Atletico Malagueno score 1.9 and concede one a game over their last seven, with two clean sheets. Atletico Malagueno average 13.9 shots (5.6 on target), 7.1 corners and 1.7 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 32%.
The read. No side to back. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side.
The bets. No best bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: CF Motril 1-1 Atletico Malagueno (13% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Atletico Malagueno the favourite), goals in between.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).