Match details. FA Cup, Women. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
Form. Durham Cestria Lfc have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W L. Hull City Lfc have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W D.
The numbers. Durham Cestria Lfc score 1.8 and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. Hull City Lfc score 4.6 and concede one a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet.
The case against. Durham Cestria Lfc's record still gives them 28% to win.
The read. Hull City Lfc to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Hull City Lfc the likelier winners; Hull City Lfc are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Hull City Lfc. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 77%.
The bets. Best bet: Draw or Hull City Lfc at 1.29, rated 72% (Hull City Lfc unbeaten in 5 of 5 away; Durham Cestria Lfc failed to win 5 of 10). Full cover: Durham Cestria Lfc Over 0.5 Goals at 1.19. Whenever the best bet loses, this one wins. Predicted score: Durham Cestria Lfc 1-2 Hull City Lfc (8% chance).
The agreed story. Hull City Lfc or the draw, an open game.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Too few cup games on either side to read.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).