Condal Club vs UC Ceares
Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 2. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 12:00 Lagos time.
Form. Condal Club have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D W D. UC Ceares have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L L L.
The numbers. Condal Club score 0.8 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Condal Club average 8.8 shots (4.2 on target), 3.5 corners and 3.0 cards a game. UC Ceares score 1.2 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. UC Ceares average 4.6 shots (2.9 on target), 1.7 corners and 3.3 cards a game.
The case against. UC Ceares's record still gives them 22% to win.
The read. Condal Club to win. A tight game. Condal Club are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Condal Club. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 35%.
The bets. Best bet: Condal Club or Draw at 1.21, 78% on the records (Condal Club unbeaten in 4 of 5 at home; UC Ceares failed to win 4 of 5 away). Leave: Condal Club or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); UC Ceares Over 0.5 goals (Condal Club's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Condal Club 1-0 UC Ceares (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).