Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 4. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 11:15 Lagos time.
Form. CD Santurtzi KE have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten league games, 1.0 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L W L L L. Amurrio Club have won none, drawn one and lost nine of their last ten league games, 0.1 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L L L L D.
The numbers. CD Santurtzi KE score 0.8 and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and four games without a goal. CD Santurtzi KE average 9.8 shots (3.2 on target), 4.4 corners and 1.8 cards a game. Amurrio Club score 0.4 and concede two a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and four games without a goal. Amurrio Club average 3.3 shots (1.0 on target), 4.3 corners and 4.7 cards a game.
The case against. Amurrio Club's record still gives them 30% to win.
The read. CD Santurtzi KE to win. A tight game. CD Santurtzi KE are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CD Santurtzi KE. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 42%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: CD Santurtzi KE 1-0 Amurrio Club (12% chance).
The agreed story. CD Santurtzi KE or the draw, a tight game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).