Match details. Serie D, Group F. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
Form. SC Trestina have won one, drawn two and lost seven of their last ten, 0.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L W L. Santegidiese Calcio have won two, drawn two and lost five of their last nine, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L D W.
The numbers. SC Trestina score 0.8 and concede 1.8 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and seven games without a goal. SC Trestina average 3.0 corners and 4.0 cards a game. Santegidiese Calcio score 0.9 and concede 1.6 a game over their last nine, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Santegidiese Calcio average 10.3 shots (4.7 on target), 5.7 corners and 1.0 cards a game.
The case against. SC Trestina's record still gives them 31% to win.
The read. Santegidiese Calcio to win. A tight game. Santegidiese Calcio are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Santegidiese Calcio. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 30%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Santegidiese Calcio or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Santegidiese Calcio or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: SC Trestina 0-1 Santegidiese Calcio (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).